El Nino, a myth busted

25 farmers from the local area to as far away as Donald, listened intently to the words of DEPI climate scientist Dale Grey, who unravelled the science and stages behind the predictions we see regularly for our weather.

As Dale said “anything more than three months from today in the form of a prediction, can be veiwed equally as a best guess or a roll of the dice”.

Dale was able to demonstrate clearly that “El Nino” is not just a single phenomena, that it has both winter – spring (affecting southern Australia) and spring – summer (affecting northern Australia) cycles which need to be understood and differentiated.  Further to this climatic shifts that lead to an El Nino on the west coast of America do not necessarily link to such a phenomena in Australia as the key zone for El Nino along the Equator is in effect divided into three seperate zones of activity, each of which has differing impacts on Southern Australia.

The long and short of it ……  The range of models are showing a slight trend to slightly lower than average spring rainfall, but we still have a way to go.

Predictive mapping used to forsee El Nino events
Predictive mapping used to forsee El Nino events